To give some background on my investing decisions, I’ve included a sampling of my recent stock writeups:
CHDN / UBET – Churchill Downs & Youbet Merger – My first ‘special situation’ investment of the year, a merger arbitrage play. Still offering a 13% spread for a merger that will likely close in the next few weeks, although it has ran a bit the date I estimated for. Already received shareholder approval, both management teams are committed to making it work, and CHDN has sold off the necessary businesses – just need final approval from regulators.
TPCS – Techprecision Corp – A growth stock with potential that is too hard to ignore. Heavy dependence on the solar market. Stock took a huge hit after its largest customer, GT Solar, canceled a multi-million dollar order last year. Recent filings show the return of GT Solar’s business, and the company is trying to diversify and take advantage of other macro trends in medical devices and nuclear power. Cheap even if the other growth prospects don’t materialize. Value: $2 or more.
APNC – Access Plans, Inc – Went through a major acquisition last year that more than doubled the size of the company. Alternative insurance-like products in high demand as people lose their jobs and cancel traditional medical insurance. Market does not seem to be pricing in the potential of the combined entity. Insiders hold 71% of outstanding shares and have been buying more. Value is more than double the current price.
ITI – Iteris, Inc – Strong insider buying back in Feburary. Stock has dropped back after reporting tough Q4 results. Large NOL carryforwards, meaning the company won’t be paying income taxes for a long time. Upside potential once the heavy truck market picks back up and a very neat technology that has real potential. Value: $3 with upside north of $4.50
ADVC – Advant-e Corporation – Small software company with steady revenues throughout the recession. Management is paying out another $.02/share in dividends in 2010 – that’s an easy 12% return. Value: $.30
NOOF – New Frontier Media – Stock is down almost 20% from its March highs on no real news. Insiders were buying up stock at around this price back in late 2009. Large goodwill writedown in 2009 scared many investors away. Outstanding CROIC numbers >50% and very aggressive company repurchase program should drive help drive price upwards. Value: at least $4.
SPAN – Span-America Medical Systems – Company has been paying dividends for 82 consecutive quarters and just paid out a $1 special dividend, a great sign. Average CROIC of 26.5 over the past three years. Owner’s earnings of 5.2m in 2009 was the company’s highest ever despite slow sales during the recession. Value is $25+
ACU – Acme United Corporation – Maker of school supplies has been around since 1867. >5% ownership interest from two institutional investors and insiders hold 26.7% of outstanding stock. 2009 was rough but the company should bounce back and continue to deliver solid income and FCF. Ultra conservative valuation of $13/share. Under normal growth scenarios, it should be trading between $17-$20.
Disclosure
*Long TPCS, APNC, ITI, ADVC, NOOF, SPAN, ACU, UBET. Short CHDN