Two Keys to Microcap Investing

Posted May 18th, 2011. Filed under Investing Philosophy

“Charlie and I believe that those entrusted with handling the funds of others should establish performance goals at the onset of their stewardship. Lacking such standards, managements are tempted to shoot the arrow of performance and then paint the bull’s-eye around wherever it lands…”

Warren Buffett – 2010 Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letter

Over the past several months, I’ve literally looked at thousands of different companies in the microcap space. The stocks that made my watch list were ‘cheap’ by one metric or another.

Often it’s the balance sheet that catches my eye – a stock trading at a large discount to book value. Or sometimes the company trades at a low multiple to its long-term earnings power – a low EV/EBIT ratio as one example.

But in microcaps – more than any other asset class – one indicator sticks out above the majority:

Quality of management is key.

The logic makes sense – in a tiny company, strong management has a huge influence on strategy and corporate decision-making. A good CEO remembers that their duty is to the shareholders, and even institutes practices to reward long-term holders (see ADVC).

A great CEO is able to turnaround a struggling company.

As a general rule, I invest in companies where insider ownership is very high. If insiders have a financial stake in the stock, then the idea is that they are financially motivated to make smart, value-creating decisions.

Control Shareholders

Investing in this space also requires an evaluation of ‘control shareholders,’ usually a family or founder that controls more than 50% of shares outstanding.

In such circumstances, it is much harder for activists to push for change, and therefore value investors – attracted to a low P/B or excess cash balances – are left with fewer options if management starts acting irresponsibly.

In these control situations, an unexpected acquisition – my favorite type of value unlocking situation – is less likely, but it is usually counteracted by a stable share count and potential to be taken private at a premium.

Usually, the greatest danger is if management is satisfied with the status quo and does nothing while the stock price lingers and excess cash sits on the balance sheet (or even worse, is blown on a dumb acquisition).

Management Compensation

High insider ownership is one part of the scenario, but I also firmly believe in another maxim:

People respond to incentives so compensation must be properly aligned.

I check the insider ownership position in the proxy statement, but also spend time understanding the performance targets and bonus structure for company management.

I’ve been around enough bonus and commission plans to know that people will exploit the bonus structure to its fullest extent, so care must be taken to ensure that management and shareholders’ interests are properly aligned.

Recent Examples

The importance of these two concepts is not confined to microcaps however.

Just ask Microsoft’s shareholders after the company’s recent acquisition of Skype – “Microsoft Buys Skype: I Feel Poorer”

As Warren Buffett said, management must not move the bulls-eye in tough times and also be willing to forego a bonus if results are not up to par.

In critiquing the bad compensation practices at Kraft, My Investing Notebook summed up the ideal scenario.

If only more companies followed this advice:

“Setting compensation is not that difficult. Pay people well for things they control, don’t reward them for things they don’t. Think on a per-share basis. Avoid tying compensation to share performance. Avoid stock options. Pay very well for operating performance and return on incremental invested capital.”

 

It’s a busy time of year from an earnings perspective, and the real world has gotten in the way of my normal posting schedule.

However, I’m pretty happy with the earnings results so far, as most of my current positions have performed well – some more so than others.

While one quarter’s (or even a year or longer in many cases) performance doesn’t make or break the merits of a selection, I continue to monitor my investment thesis closely for any signs of deterioration, whether from competition, changing market conditions, or other catalysts.

To be more efficient, I’m going to combine several earnings reports into a series of summary posts.

AMCON Distributing Co. (DIT)

Despite a challenging distributing environment and significantly higher energy costs, AMCON turned in a solid quarter.

Second quarter revenues came in at $206m, down 6% from $230m during the same quarter in 2010. The majority of this decrease was a lower volume of cigarette sales (down $18.7m) that was not offset by a corresponding increase in cigarette prices (up $5.9m).

Net income was $1.5m, down 12%, translating to quarterly EPS of $2.56.

While the income statement showed some pressure, management continues to strengthen the balance sheet.

Due to the nature of the DIT’s business model (i.e. extremely low margins, decent operating leverage), it was good to see the company pay off $5.8m in debt during the quarter.

More importantly, the company renewed its credit agreement with Bank of America – an absolutely vital lifeline for the distributing side of the business – for another 3 years on significantly better terms:

Amcon Distributing DIT Credit Agreement

Management continues to take a long-term perspective, not only in expansion but in potential acquisition targets as well:

“We are delighted to have an enhanced credit facility that we believe will give us additional flexibility to take advantage of potential acquisitions and merchant opportunities …We are taking a long range view as we continue to make investments in foodservice, technology and related value added propositions designed to increase our customers’ bottom line… We are carefully evaluating new store locations in both of the regions we operate in. Our recent store opening in Tulsa, Oklahoma has met our expectations. Our niche in the retail market is well defined and we believe there is room to prudently expand…”

Sparton Corp (SPA)

After reporting tough second quarter results back in February, Sparton’s stock sold off sharply over the next few days, dropping almost 20%, despite reasonable explanations for the mixed results and several positive developments.

The confidence was vindicated with the third quarter results this week, as quarterly revenues shot up more than 30% to $50.3m, compared to $38.6m in the third quarter last year.

The new acquisition of Byers Peak is providing immediate gains – with further margin improvements possible due to the planned plant consolidation – and the EMS segment finally showed a big jump in margins as management focuses on profitable contracts.

This margin improvement led to the largest quarterly gross profit in over five years, with quarterly net income more than tripling to $2.5m, or $0.25 per share.

The turnaround is continuing nicely, setting up SPA for its stated (and very bold) goal of reaching $500m in sales by 2015.

Advant-E Corp (ADVC)

The company continues to chug along with steadily improving results. First quarter revenue was up 5% to $2.3m, compared to $2.2m in the same period the previous year.

Edict Systems, the amazingly-consistent SaaS growth machine, turned out another 2% revenue increase, but the big surprise was the Merkur Group with a 22% jump in sales.

Merkur was hit hard during the recession – even posting small losses – but the acquisition is looking better as the economy recovers.

Net income was up to $385k, equal to $0.006 per share, up 45% over the first quarter last year.

More importantly, the company announced another special dividend of $0.02 per share, payable in two installments during the remainder of 2011. The last special dividend was a big part of the original investment thesis.

By the end of 2012, the company will have returned $0.05 per share in dividends in less than two years – almost 20% of the current market cap – once again showing a commitment to rewarding “shareholders, many of whom are long-term investors in the Company.”

Gaming Partners International (GPIC)

I was very late in posting my viewpoint on GPIC’s 2010 financial results, as the company quickly followed up my post by announcing stellar first quarter earnings.

According to the press release,

“For the first quarter of 2011, the Company posted revenues of $17.8 million and net income of $1.7 million, or $0.21 per basic and diluted share. These results compare to revenues of $10.9 million and net income of $37,000, or $0.00 per basic and diluted share, for the first quarter of 2010.”

And backing up my thesis:

“The primary reason for the significant increase in first quarter 2011 net income was comparably higher sales of chips to casinos in Macau.”

As far as the company’s prospects for the rest of 2011, consider this:

GPIC’s first quarter EPS of $0.21 is roughly 40% of the company’s earnings for all of 2010, the 2nd best year in the company’s history, AND the first quarter is usually the slowest of the year.

While the company warned that the rest of the year will unlikely match these results, I think it bodes well for the annual outlook (and hopefully the stock price!).

Concluding Thoughts

I continue to look for ways to raise additional cash in the portfolio, as I remain skeptical on the overall market.

However, there are quite a few stocks, including a few international ones, that I am tracking closely. I’ve had 6-7 bids outstanding for many weeks, as I continue to remain patient about picking up shares in some of these illiquid issues.

I hope to showcase some fresh analysis over the coming months.

Make sure to stay tuned for Part II as more holdings report their results.

Disclosure

Long DIT, SPA, ADVC, & GPIC

Weekend Values – May 8, 2011

Posted May 8th, 2011. Filed under Investing Links

As usual, a few of the best value investing links from the past two weeks:

2011 Berkshire Meeting Notes

For those (like myself) who weren’t able to attend the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, this is the next best thing…

Check out these awesome notes for a full breakdown of more than 6 hours of Q&A with Buffett and Munger.

Dainichi Co. Ltd (TYO:5951)

I’ve been doing quite a bit of research on Japanese stocks over the past few weeks – the country has its share of problems, but also boasts some very strong net-net stocks…

This is a great example of thinking through an investment that appears very attractive from a balance sheet perspective. Dainichi has 65% of its market cap in cash, but a closer look at the cash flow statements shows a much different story.

Metalrax (MRX:LSE)

A tiny UK stock, Metalrax was recently added to Richard Beddard’s Thrifty 30, a nice list on one of the best UK value investing blogs.

While many of the best UK stocks are traded on the AIM exchange (similar to the OTCBB, and therefore off-limits through most U.S. discount brokers), there are certainly some gems.

Read the entire series on MRX for the details, but the company has been showing sales growth backed by significant insider purchases.

Yukon Gold Nevada Corporation (YNGFF.PK)

Yukon Gold is a stock that was featured on Weekend Values back in August 2010, after a well-researched write-up.

Recently, the stock has been hammered, down more than 50% so far this year on unusual pricing action. Due to severe weather causing delays, management is deciding to raise (possibly dilutive?) cash in order to fund additional investments in the mine.

Many investors still seem bullish on the stock’s prospects so it definitely remains on the watch list (although outside of my personal circle of competence).

Suggestions

If you have suggestions for detailed analysis examples from other value investors, please drop me a line using the Contact Form.

I’m always open to ideas from other investors, especially for a thoughtful and well-researched investment articles.

Disclosure

No positions.